Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Shenzhenwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Axe
Son GoKu · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Hoodwink
XCJ · 4 games
Linaoften banned
7e · 4 games
Phoenix
XCJ · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Zyd · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Night · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Son GoKu · 3 games
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
277 picks · 413 bans
Tidehunter
270 picks · 395 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 648 bans
Bane
241 picks · 183 bans
Weaver
231 picks · 441 bans
Lina
216 picks · 477 bans
Lion
207 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
207 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Shenzhen
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:8
Sparking Arrow Gaming 45%Shenzhen 55%
The model gave 55% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 31:11.
Game 2prediction correct19:38
Sparking Arrow Gaming 45%Shenzhen 55%
The model gave 55% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 56:39.
Game 3prediction correct7:49
Sparking Arrow Gaming 45%Shenzhen 55%
The model gave 55% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 49:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteShenzhen · 55%
Series resultShenzhen 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3