Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Marssignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Weaversignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 9 games
Abaddonoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 8 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
274 picks · 410 bans
Tidehunter
270 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 644 bans
Bane
240 picks · 183 bans
Weaver
228 picks · 435 bans
Lina
216 picks · 473 bans
Lion
206 picks · 107 bans
Void Spirit
206 picks · 263 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:30
Brame 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 33:28.
Game 2prediction missed43:13
Brame 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Brame in 36:07.
Game 3prediction missed47:30
Brame 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Brame in 39:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 73%
Series resultBrame 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3