Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Neptune Gamingloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MagMawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neptune Gaming
Tidehunteroften banned
Yang · 14 games
Phoenix
fy · 13 games
Lion
fy · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yang · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
Somnus · 10 games
Hoodwink
fy · 9 games
Linasignature
Somnus · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 9 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
274 picks · 407 bans
Tidehunter
271 picks · 392 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 646 bans
Bane
243 picks · 182 bans
Weaver
225 picks · 432 bans
Lina
220 picks · 474 bans
Lion
208 picks · 107 bans
Void Spirit
206 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Neptune Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:32
Neptune Gaming 31%Team MagMa 69%
The model gave 69% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 24:32.
Game 2prediction correct14:27
Neptune Gaming 31%Team MagMa 69%
The model gave 69% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 28:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 69%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2