Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionTTropicThunderloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TropicThunder
Tidehunteroften banned
Max · 3 games
Disruptor
lilskrip · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
lilskrip · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
WoE · 1 game
Jakiro
lilskrip · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
WoE · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Max · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
WoE · 1 game
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 7 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 7 games
Night Stalkersignature
Blizzy · 7 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
273 picks · 405 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 393 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 644 bans
Bane
244 picks · 182 bans
Weaver
224 picks · 429 bans
Lina
219 picks · 474 bans
Lion
208 picks · 107 bans
Void Spirit
205 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 65%
Hero pool strength60% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:20
TropicThunder 36%Hydra 64%
The model gave 64% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerWoE
Ember SpiritAskold
TidehunterMax
SlarkKami
Grimstrokelilskrip
UnderlordBlizzy
57% · 29 games
ChenZayac
59% · 71 game
Dark WillowMuka
Game 2prediction correct12:45
TropicThunder 39%Hydra 61%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidWoE
Wraith KingKami
MarsMax
ZeusAskold
Snapfirelilskrip
TidehunterBlizzy
45% · 88 games
WeaverMuka
52% · 261 game
LionZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 72%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2