Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionПпасекаloss 0:1
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hydrawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
пасека
Doomoften banned
Larl · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Accell · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
xannii · 1 game
Linaoften banned
xannii · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
Nix · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Larl · 1 game
Rubick
illusion · 1 game
Silenceroften banned
Accell · 1 game
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 9 games
Night Stalkersignature
Blizzy · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 6 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 6 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
273 picks · 405 bans
Tidehunter
266 picks · 393 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 642 bans
Bane
243 picks · 182 bans
Weaver
223 picks · 428 bans
Lina
219 picks · 474 bans
Lion
208 picks · 107 bans
Void Spirit
205 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength67% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:21
пасека 31%Hydra 69%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNix
SlarkKami
Ember Spiritxannii
BatriderAskold
TidehunterLarl
BeastmasterBlizzy
Snapfireillusion
ChenZayac
JakiroAccell
MiranaMuka
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 79%
Series resultHydra 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1