Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 1:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TTheOwlsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 6 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 6 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Zayac · 6 games
TheOwls
Disruptor
Hduo · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
GGwpLanaya · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
Razoroften banned
GGwpLanaya · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
270 picks · 404 bans
Tidehunter
266 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 638 bans
Bane
242 picks · 181 bans
Weaver
222 picks · 421 bans
Lina
216 picks · 472 bans
Lion
209 picks · 107 bans
Tiny
203 picks · 273 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:12
Hydra 59%TheOwls 41%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerKami
RazorGGwpLanaya
Earth SpiritAskold
MarsShergarat
Night StalkerBlizzy
OracleHduo
Dark WillowMuka
BaneZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 61%
Series resultHydra 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1