Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Khanloss 0:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
DDisRespecTwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Khan
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 14 games
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 11 games
Bane
antoha · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Dodren · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
layme · 9 games
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
DisRespecT
Batrideroften banned
chambi · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Reynauld · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
SuperNova · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
270 picks · 404 bans
Tidehunter
266 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 638 bans
Bane
242 picks · 181 bans
Weaver
222 picks · 421 bans
Lina
216 picks · 472 bans
Lion
209 picks · 107 bans
Tiny
203 picks · 273 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Khan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:22
Khan 54%DisRespecT 46%
The model gave 54% on Khan — the game was taken by DisRespecT in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelayme
Naga SirenReynauld
Marschshrct
Templar Assassinchambi
Void SpiritWorick
TidehunterSuperNova
Dark Willowgoddam
UndyingAoharide
Model check result
Model favoriteKhan · 58%
Series resultDisRespecT 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1