Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionTTropicThunderloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TropicThunder
Disruptor
lilskrip · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Max · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
WoE · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
WoE · 1 game
V-Gaming
Linasignature
hAze · 35 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 25 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
Disruptor
Malady · 21 game
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 21 game
Marssignature
laise · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
270 picks · 404 bans
Tidehunter
266 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 638 bans
Bane
242 picks · 181 bans
Weaver
222 picks · 421 bans
Lina
216 picks · 472 bans
Lion
209 picks · 107 bans
Tiny
203 picks · 273 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% TropicThunder
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:24
TropicThunder 37%V-Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingWoE
Faceless VoidTA2000
TidehunterMax
Razorlaise
Jakirolilskrip
LinahAze
41% · 118 games
Grimstrokeantoha
57% · 94 games
Monkey KingArrOw
Game 2prediction correct2:12
TropicThunder 37%V-Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 12:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaWoE
Faceless VoidTA2000
MarsMax
Outworld DestroyerhAze
Abaddonlilskrip
Beastmasterlaise
46% · 82 games
Dark WillowArrOw
50% · 6 games
Jakiroantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 70%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2