Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydra JRwin 1:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
WWITCHloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra JR
No games played over 6 months.
WITCH
Drow Rangeroften banned
paradise' · 1 game
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 1 game
Rubick
y0nd · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Pikachu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
270 picks · 404 bans
Tidehunter
266 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 638 bans
Bane
242 picks · 181 bans
Weaver
222 picks · 421 bans
Lina
216 picks · 472 bans
Lion
209 picks · 107 bans
Tiny
203 picks · 273 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% WITCH
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% WITCH
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:18
Hydra JR 45%WITCH 55%
The model gave 55% on WITCH — the game was taken by Hydra JR in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckhina
Storm SpiritPikachu
52% · 54 games
Ursaparadise'
53% · 26 games
SlardarLastHero-
34% · 25 games
Weavery0nd
66% · 28 games
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
Model check result
Model favoriteWITCH · 57%
Series resultHydra JR 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1