Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionAApenarloss 0:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
WWITCHwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apenar
No games played over 6 months.
WITCH
Drow Rangeroften banned
paradise' · 1 game
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 1 game
Rubick
y0nd · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Pikachu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
271 picks · 405 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 393 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 641 bans
Bane
243 picks · 181 bans
Weaver
222 picks · 420 bans
Lina
219 picks · 476 bans
Lion
211 picks · 109 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% WITCH
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Apenar
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteApenar · 57%
Series resultWITCH 0:1
Series predictionmissed