Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionKKuCyJIbKuloss 0:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
WWITCHwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KuCyJIbKu
Clockwerk
Sh4dowehhh · 1 game
Dark Willow
XBOCT · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Iceberg · 1 game
WITCH
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
269 picks · 404 bans
Tidehunter
266 picks · 394 bans
Monkey King
261 picks · 639 bans
Bane
243 picks · 180 bans
Lina
221 picks · 477 bans
Weaver
221 picks · 417 bans
Lion
212 picks · 109 bans
Void Spirit
207 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% WITCH
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% KuCyJIbKu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:39
KuCyJIbKu 54%WITCH 46%
The model gave 54% on KuCyJIbKu — the game was taken by WITCH in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckIceberg
Drow Rangerparadise'
Spirit BreakerALWAYSWANNAFLY
MarsLastHero-
WeaverXBOCT
Void SpiritPikachu
AbaddonSh4dowehhh
Rubicky0nd
50% · 49 games
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
Model check result
Model favoriteKuCyJIbKu · 57%
Series resultWITCH 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1