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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 9 games
56%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 8 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 7 games
86%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 7 games
43%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 7 games
86%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Panda · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
waveformn · 7 games
57%

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 28 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 27 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 26 games
42%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 22 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 19 games
37%
Puck
Puckoften banned
niche · 19 games
37%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
621 picks · 951 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
521 picks · 426 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 627 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 968 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 542 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 461 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
411 picks · 253 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 534 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:16
Winter Bear 47%Inner Circle 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezzuyzyan
55% · 83 games46% · 128 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Mars
MarsPanda
45% · 402 games51% · 281 game
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomfortniteMan
51% · 148 games55% · 81 game
Razorlaise
Razor
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
48% · 199 games50% · 255 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonwaveformn
53% · 347 games49% · 434 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct16:49
Winter Bear 49%Inner Circle 51%
The model gave 51% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPanda
48% · 376 games57% · 64 games
Kez423
Kez
Muerta
Muertazuyzyan
55% · 217 games46% · 385 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Slardar
SlardarfortniteMan
55% · 278 games48% · 190 games
Axelaise
Axe
Tiny
Tinywaveformn
46% · 457 games47% · 467 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
50% · 168 games50% · 390 games
RingmasterFernans
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed30:21
Winter Bear 47%Inner Circle 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertazuyzyan
55% · 211 games62% · 156 games
Phantom Assassin423
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPanda
46% · 423 games47% · 574 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
51% · 343 games53% · 239 games
Underlordlaise
Underlord
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
44% · 543 games48% · 299 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDelight
44% · 276 games49% · 528 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 56%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3