Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs predictionRFRed flowerloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shenzhenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Red flower
Abaddonoften banned
sheep · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
doodle · 1 game
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
doodle · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Killa · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Killa · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Killa · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
doodle · 1 game
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
269 picks · 403 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 395 bans
Monkey King
263 picks · 638 bans
Bane
243 picks · 180 bans
Lina
221 picks · 480 bans
Weaver
221 picks · 415 bans
Lion
212 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Red flower
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Shenzhen
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:16
Red flower 47%Shenzhen 53%
The model gave 53% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 30:32.
Game 2prediction correct15:32
Red flower 47%Shenzhen 53%
The model gave 53% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 45:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteShenzhen · 53%
Series resultShenzhen 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2