Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenwin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
iG Vitalityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
iG Vitality
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Iooften banned
Dogf1ghts · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
269 picks · 402 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 398 bans
Monkey King
261 picks · 637 bans
Bane
242 picks · 180 bans
Lina
221 picks · 480 bans
Weaver
220 picks · 413 bans
Lion
214 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 26%
Hero pool strength51% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:15
Shenzhen 46%iG Vitality 54%
The model gave 54% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 27:20.
Game 2prediction correct26:8
Shenzhen 46%iG Vitality 54%
The model gave 54% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 22:30.
Game 3prediction correct31:30
Shenzhen 46%iG Vitality 54%
The model gave 54% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 51:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 54%
Series resultShenzhen 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3