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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circlewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 21 game
76%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 16 games
44%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 12 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 11 games
82%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 11 games
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
cutie · 11 games
64%

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 27 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 26 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 26 games
42%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 21 game
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
niche · 19 games
37%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 18 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
621 picks · 952 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 430 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 627 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 968 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 550 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 461 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
409 picks · 252 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 537 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 49%
Hero pool strength59% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total53% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:29
VP.Prodigy 49%Inner Circle 51%
The model gave 51% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingKatsura
54% · 184 games61% · 66 games
Kez423
Kez
Terrorblade
Terrorbladecutie
44% · 271 game46% · 407 games
BeastmasterSupream^
Beastmaster
Largo
Largotakizawa
59% · 43 games51% · 235 games
Dark Seerlaise
Dark Seer
Tiny
Tinyraregods
45% · 405 games50% · 198 games
ChenSe
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
50% · 532 games49% · 529 games
TuskFernans
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct7:29
VP.Prodigy 47%Inner Circle 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 38:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezcutie
56% · 67 games45% · 143 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Puck
PuckKatsura
44% · 338 games63% · 43 games
Largolaise
Largo
Sand King
Sand Kingtakizawa
51% · 232 games41% · 266 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Chen
ChenJANTER
55% · 201 game49% · 575 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
53% · 436 games49% · 247 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 53%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2