Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 1:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Mmiaww^^loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
Linasignature
hAze · 33 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
Disruptor
Malady · 21 game
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 20 games
Marssignature
laise · 19 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 17 games
miaww^^
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
269 picks · 401 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 399 bans
Monkey King
261 picks · 637 bans
Bane
242 picks · 178 bans
Lina
219 picks · 481 bans
Weaver
217 picks · 413 bans
Lion
215 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
210 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:39
V-Gaming 70%miaww^^ 30%
The model gave 70% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 46:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 70%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1