Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
UultraHDloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
ultraHD
Hoodwink
kickeed · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Egor · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
268 picks · 399 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 399 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 636 bans
Bane
241 picks · 177 bans
Lina
219 picks · 480 bans
Weaver
216 picks · 411 bans
Lion
214 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
210 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% ultraHD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:30
CIS Rejects 59%ultraHD 41%
The model gave 59% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by ultraHD in 34:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 59%
Series resultCIS Rejects 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1