Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Pavagaloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
UultraHDwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pavaga
No games played over 6 months.
ultraHD
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 395 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 396 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 633 bans
Bane
241 picks · 175 bans
Lina
218 picks · 479 bans
Lion
214 picks · 108 bans
Weaver
214 picks · 408 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Pavaga
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Pavaga
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
Pavaga 51%ultraHD 49%
The model gave 51% on Pavaga — the game was taken by ultraHD in 29:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdizzying
Night StalkerDkFogas
GrimstrokeArti_Shock
Void SpiritEgor
Shadow DemonGroom
Hoodwinkkickeed
Model check result
Model favoritePavaga · 50%
Series resultultraHD 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1