Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Novawin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KKuCyJIbKuloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nova
No games played over 6 months.
KuCyJIbKu
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
269 picks · 394 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 395 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 632 bans
Bane
241 picks · 175 bans
Lina
218 picks · 480 bans
Lion
215 picks · 108 bans
Weaver
214 picks · 406 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Nova
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% KuCyJIbKu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:11
Nova 45%KuCyJIbKu 55%
The model gave 55% on KuCyJIbKu — the game was taken by Nova in 28:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteKuCyJIbKu · 55%
Series resultNova 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1