Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Khanwin 1:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ппасекаloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Khan
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 14 games
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 11 games
Bane
antoha · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
layme · 9 games
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
пасека
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
268 picks · 394 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 394 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 631 bans
Bane
241 picks · 174 bans
Lina
217 picks · 480 bans
Lion
215 picks · 108 bans
Weaver
213 picks · 406 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% пасека
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Khan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:24
Khan 58%пасека 42%
The model gave 58% on Khan — the game was taken by Khan in 47:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautlayme
UrsaNix
Ember SpiritWorick
Linaxannii
Brewmasterchshrct
MarsLarl
Weavergoddam
Rubickillusion
PangolierAoharide
GrimstrokeAccell
Model check result
Model favoriteKhan · 66%
Series resultKhan 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1