Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
KOBOLDSloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
InterActive Philippineswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KOBOLDS
Wraith Kingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
InterActive Philippines
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 4 games
Rubick
Matt · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Kim0 · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Lion
Matt · 2 games
Nature's Prophet
Marb · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Marb · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 392 bans
Tidehunter
266 picks · 392 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 628 bans
Bane
240 picks · 174 bans
Lina
217 picks · 476 bans
Lion
214 picks · 108 bans
Weaver
211 picks · 404 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% KOBOLDS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% KOBOLDS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:33
KOBOLDS 55%InterActive Philippines 45%
The model gave 55% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterFortuneSoul
TerrorbladeMarb
50% · 20 games
Templar AssassinNishababy
50% · 36 games
TimbersawLuciano
53% · 28 games
TidehunterKim0
57% · 47 games
SnapfireMatt
Game 2prediction correct33:20
KOBOLDS 54%InterActive Philippines 46%
The model gave 54% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by KOBOLDS in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterFortuneSoul
UrsaMarb
59% · 18 games
InvokerNishababy
50% · 36 games
TimbersawLuciano
44% · 12 games
WeaverMatt
59% · 25 games
BaneKim0
Game 3prediction missed47:58
KOBOLDS 54%InterActive Philippines 46%
The model gave 54% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 1:04:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingFortuneSoul
Phantom AssassinMarb
51% · 33 games
Ember SpiritNishababy
58% · 27 games
WeaverKim0
45% · 92 games
MarsLuciano
44% · 48 games
LionMatt
Model check result
Model favoriteKOBOLDS · 57%
Series resultInterActive Philippines 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3