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UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 24 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yamich · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
BOOM · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 13 games
31%
Bane
Baneoften banned
MoOz · 12 games
25%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
42%

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 27 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Covisnine · 22 games
32%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 22 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 17 games
35%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 15 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Covisnine · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
529 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
432 picks · 195 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 173 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 506 bans
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
330 picks · 302 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 311 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
306 picks · 511 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
286 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 32%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:6
MOUZ 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
48% · 250 games47% · 39 games
Phantom Lancer7jesu
Phantom Lancer
Kez
Kez423
47% · 217 games58% · 99 games
Enigmatakizawa
Enigma
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMo13ei
42% · 270 games56% · 541 game
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
49% · 440 games52% · 712 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
43% · 361 game54% · 147 games
Nyx Assassinariel
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed27:34
MOUZ 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet423
50% · 180 games50% · 147 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Necrophos
NecrophosBOOM
55% · 122 games44% · 80 games
Brewmastertakizawa
Brewmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMo13ei
46% · 294 games50% · 303 games
Tiny7jesu
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
46% · 368 games49% · 105 games
DazzleVaniLLl
Dazzle
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMoOz
58% · 205 games53% · 534 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct33:20
MOUZ 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druid423
55% · 102 games51% · 144 games
Nature's Prophet7jesu
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaBOOM
45% · 75 games45% · 167 games
Tidehuntertakizawa
Tidehunter
Slark
SlarkMo13ei
55% · 93 games49% · 350 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
51% · 154 games50% · 217 games
Techiesariel
Techies
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
50% · 539 games51% · 85 games
DazzleVaniLLl
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 70%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3