LEGION vs BlasterbI — prediction UBFЗК · Dota 2

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UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3

result vs prediction

LEGIONwin 2:1

series probability

26%74%

probability at match start · final 2:1

BlasterbIloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LEGION

No games played over 6 months.

BlasterbI

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

528 picks · 315 bans

50%

Dark Willow

432 picks · 192 bans

51%

Mirana

391 picks · 173 bans

52%

Ember Spirit

342 picks · 505 bans

58%

Winter Wyvern

329 picks · 300 bans

58%

Centaur Warrunner

314 picks · 310 bans

54%

Earth Spirit

306 picks · 510 bans

53%

Windranger

285 picks · 151 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% LEGION

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total74% BlasterbI

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct14:41

LEGION 38%BlasterbI 62%

The model gave 62% on BlasterbI — the game was taken by BlasterbI in 45:06.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo