Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs predictionRFRed flowerwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMYZDloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Red flower
No games played over 6 months.
MYZD
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 383 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 614 bans
Bane
238 picks · 173 bans
Lina
216 picks · 466 bans
Lion
213 picks · 101 bans
Void Spirit
211 picks · 260 bans
Weaver
209 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Red flower
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% MYZD
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:6
Red flower 44%MYZD 56%
The model gave 56% on MYZD — the game was taken by Red flower in 21:28.
Game 2prediction missed15:49
Red flower 44%MYZD 56%
The model gave 56% on MYZD — the game was taken by Red flower in 29:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteMYZD · 56%
Series resultRed flower 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2