Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TPTeam Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Team Pirates
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 383 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 614 bans
Bane
238 picks · 173 bans
Lina
216 picks · 466 bans
Lion
213 picks · 101 bans
Void Spirit
211 picks · 260 bans
Weaver
209 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Shenzhen
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:14
Shenzhen 55%Team Pirates 45%
The model gave 55% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Team Pirates in 47:04.
Game 2prediction missed4:27
Shenzhen 55%Team Pirates 45%
The model gave 55% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Team Pirates in 34:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteShenzhen · 55%
Series resultShenzhen 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2