Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
InterActive Philippineswin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atomic Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
InterActive Philippines
Rubick
Matt · 3 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Kim0 · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Nature's Prophet
Marb · 2 games
Disruptor
Kim0 · 1 game
Enchantress
Kim0 · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Atomic Esports
Grimstroke
Jing · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Karma丶 · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
Karma丶 · 1 game
Rubick
Jing · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 383 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 386 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 613 bans
Bane
238 picks · 172 bans
Lina
218 picks · 464 bans
Lion
213 picks · 102 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 261 bans
Weaver
209 picks · 388 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Atomic Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:28
InterActive Philippines 49%Atomic Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMarb
MedusaKarma丶
MarsLuciano
SnapfireJing
BatriderNishababy
LionMatt
UndyingKim0
Game 2prediction correct35:33
InterActive Philippines 50%Atomic Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreMarb
TerrorbladeKarma丶
Ember SpiritNishababy
SnapfireJing
Spirit BreakerLuciano
GrimstrokeMatt
Elder TitanKim0
Model check result
Model favoriteAtomic Esports · 52%
Series resultInterActive Philippines 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2