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UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
LEGIONwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LEGION

Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 1 game
100%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Kidaro · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
SabeRLight- · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kidaro · 1 game
100%
Largo
Largooften banned
SabeRLight- · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
100%

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 24 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mrls · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
BOOM · 15 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 14 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
29%
Bane
Baneoften banned
MoOz · 12 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
537 picks · 318 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
437 picks · 200 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 174 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 510 bans
57%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
334 picks · 308 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 313 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 514 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 31%
Hero pool strength54% LEGION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:28
LEGION 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by LEGION in 53:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosDarkLord^
56% · 124 games48% · 31 game
Naga Siren423
Naga Siren
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
51% · 103 games51% · 76 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerStojkov
42% · 33 games41% · 59 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKidaro
52% · 165 games47% · 109 games
Rubickmrls
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
54% · 107 games51% · 257 games
HoodwinkMoOz
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed30:21
LEGION 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by LEGION in 41:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaDarkLord^
57% · 128 games48% · 103 games
Luna423
Luna
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
50% · 115 games52% · 81 game
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerStojkov
51% · 25 games47% · 44 games
NecrophosMo13ei
Necrophos
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerxsvampire
52% · 56 games44% · 137 games
Dark WillowMoOz
Dark Willow
Dazzle
DazzleKidaro
48% · 85 games50% · 44 games
Bounty Huntermrls
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 67%
Series resultLEGION 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2