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UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
CyberHeroloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BlasterbIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CyberHero

Rubick
Rubick
Wein · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 3 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Htrd · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Bb3px · 2 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Bb3px · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wein · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphling
WoE · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Ainkrad · 2 games
100%

BlasterbI

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Panto · 5 games
80%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
33%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Panto · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hellscream · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Hellscream · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 2 games
100%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
528 picks · 320 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
439 picks · 202 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 175 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 507 bans
57%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
337 picks · 309 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 303 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
300 picks · 510 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
279 picks · 144 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% CyberHero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% BlasterbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:44
CyberHero 44%BlasterbI 56%
The model gave 56% on BlasterbI — the game was taken by BlasterbI in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaWoE
51% · 190 games51% · 136 games
NecrophosCorrupted
Necrophos
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAinkrad
51% · 220 games51% · 338 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Doom
DoomBb3px
47% · 253 games50% · 358 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickWein
46% · 343 games47% · 151 game
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernHtrd
53% · 232 games52% · 255 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed46:46
CyberHero 42%BlasterbI 58%
The model gave 58% on BlasterbI — the game was taken by CyberHero in 1:14:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWoE
48% · 179 games54% · 140 games
InvokerSquad1x
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
47% · 310 games54% · 88 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Rubick
RubickWein
42% · 295 games51% · 192 games
Dragon KnightCorrupted
Dragon Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
48% · 110 games55% · 45 games
EarthshakerHellscream
Earthshaker
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorHtrd
45% · 100 games56% · 529 games
HoodwinkPanto
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct13:36
CyberHero 46%BlasterbI 54%
The model gave 54% on BlasterbI — the game was taken by BlasterbI in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkWoE
51% · 55 games52% · 109 games
Lone DruidMunkushi~
Lone Druid
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
51% · 327 games52% · 264 games
Dragon KnightCorrupted
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
48% · 200 games53% · 129 games
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Earth Spirit
Rubick
RubickWein
44% · 148 games49% · 61 game
Witch DoctorPanto
Witch Doctor
Dazzle
DazzleHtrd
51% · 86 games50% · 253 games
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteBlasterbI · 63%
Series resultBlasterbI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3