UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CyberHerowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 24 games
Hoodwink
yamich · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 15 games
Pangolier
BOOM · 15 games
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 13 games
Baneoften banned
MoOz · 12 games
CyberHero
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Bb3px · 2 games
Hoodwink
Wein · 2 games
Rubick
Wein · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Bb3px · 1 game
Clockwerk
Htrd · 1 game
Luna
WoE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
533 picks · 318 bans
Dark Willow
439 picks · 200 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 174 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 510 bans
Winter Wyvern
334 picks · 310 bans
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 307 bans
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 514 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% CyberHero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:40
MOUZ 53%CyberHero 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by CyberHero in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid423
Anti-MageWoE
Ember SpiritSupream^
PangolierAinkrad
DoomBOOM
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
MiranaMoOz
RubickWein
Windrangermrls
Winter WyvernHtrd
Game 2prediction missed17:44
MOUZ 52%CyberHero 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by CyberHero in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritSupream^
MorphlingWoE
NecrophosBOOM
DoomBb3px
Tiny423
Earth SpiritAinkrad
PhoenixMoOz
Winter WyvernHtrd
Clockwerkmrls
RubickWein
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 58%
Series resultCyberHero 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2