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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 26 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 26 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 26 games
42%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 20 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 18 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
22%
Puck
Puckoften banned
niche · 18 games
33%

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
24%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 13 games
31%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 12 games
17%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 11 games
36%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
27%
Techies
Techies
Aidar · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
620 picks · 954 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
525 picks · 431 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 628 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 969 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 553 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
411 picks · 252 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 460 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 537 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Inner Circle
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total75% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:22
Inner Circle 65%Team Spirit Academy 35%
The model gave 65% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 1:03:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight423
49% · 238 games44% · 92 games
Tinker86
Tinker
Underlord
Underlordlaise
49% · 96 games48% · 234 games
Abaddonrubikon155
Abaddon
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSupream^
53% · 98 games52% · 137 games
Dark Seerkae
Dark Seer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSe
54% · 112 games51% · 80 games
Spirit BreakerAidar
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFernans
55% · 157 games46% · 158 games
Dazzlekyford
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct38:25
Inner Circle 64%Team Spirit Academy 36%
The model gave 64% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet423
48% · 245 games54% · 357 games
Templar Assassinrubikon155
Templar Assassin
Enigma
Enigmalaise
59% · 90 games45% · 622 games
Dragon Knightkae
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckSupream^
49% · 417 games56% · 129 games
Viper86
Viper
Jakiro
JakiroSe
50% · 454 games49% · 99 games
Nyx AssassinAidar
Nyx Assassin
Tusk
TuskFernans
45% · 436 games47% · 435 games
Disruptorkyford
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 75%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2