Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO5
result vs prediction
Entityloss 2:3series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:3
HellRaiserswin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
267 picks · 382 bans
Mars
263 picks · 381 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 608 bans
Bane
235 picks · 170 bans
Lina
217 picks · 463 bans
Lion
212 picks · 101 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 260 bans
Weaver
208 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:20
Entity 57%HellRaisers 43%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 31:33.
Game 2prediction missed24:27
Entity 57%HellRaisers 43%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 38:01.
Game 3prediction missed16:27
Entity 57%HellRaisers 43%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 29:09.
Game 4prediction missed25:48
Entity 57%HellRaisers 43%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 38:32.
Game 5prediction missed26:10
Entity 57%HellRaisers 43%
The model gave 57% on Entity — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 33:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 57%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 5