Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 6 games
Chenoften banned
Zayac · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 5 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
266 picks · 382 bans
Mars
263 picks · 379 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 606 bans
Bane
234 picks · 169 bans
Lina
217 picks · 463 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 259 bans
Lion
211 picks · 101 bans
Weaver
208 picks · 381 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength60% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:16
Hydra 37%HellRaisers 63%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 30:33.
Game 2prediction correct15:32
Hydra 37%HellRaisers 63%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 41:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 63%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2