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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnuswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Legalize Potmloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Magnus

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
txhyoo1 · 3 games
67%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Jack · 3 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chen · 2 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 2 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Jack · 2 games
100%

Legalize Potm

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 377 bans
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
264 picks · 384 bans
47%
Monkey King
Monkey King
258 picks · 610 bans
61%
Bane
Bane
232 picks · 169 bans
60%
Lina
Lina
216 picks · 468 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
216 picks · 259 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
213 picks · 101 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
208 picks · 378 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Team Magnus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:16
Team Magnus 54%Legalize Potm 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 33:27.
Game 2prediction missed8:26
Team Magnus 54%Legalize Potm 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Legalize Potm in 35:31.
Game 3prediction correct37:16
Team Magnus 54%Legalize Potm 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 47:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 54%
Series resultTeam Magnus 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3