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BLAST Slam VI · BO5
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:3
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Liquidwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 26 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 23 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 23 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
45%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 20 games
70%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 35 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 19 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
621 picks · 948 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 427 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 624 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 969 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 559 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
407 picks · 455 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
406 picks · 250 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 663 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:21
OG 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezNatsumi
48% · 85 games52% · 97 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Viper
ViperYopaj
55% · 121 game53% · 212 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
48% · 233 games49% · 202 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterTims
54% · 137 games44% · 214 games
WarlocktOfu
Warlock
Windranger
WindrangerSkem
44% · 257 games53% · 108 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Game 2prediction correct17:27
OG 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverNatsumi
37% · 149 games53% · 220 games
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawYopaj
51% · 267 games55% · 38 games
LargoAce
Largo
Chen
ChenSkem
54% · 273 games52% · 94 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
48% · 179 games52% · 320 games
JakirotOfu
Jakiro
Mirana
MiranaTims
52% · 98 games47% · 294 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct36:33
OG 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:25:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
43% · 234 games51% · 322 games
BeastmasterNisha
Beastmaster
Viper
ViperForce
63% · 35 games50% · 94 games
LycanAce
Lycan
Tiny
TinyYopaj
45% · 281 game50% · 251 game
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTims
45% · 92 games57% · 74 games
LargotOfu
Largo
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSkem
49% · 121 game60% · 22 games
Earth SpiritBoxi
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3