Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 6 games
Dark Willow
Muka · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 5 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
Chenoften banned
Zayac · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
265 picks · 375 bans
Tidehunter
264 picks · 385 bans
Monkey King
256 picks · 612 bans
Bane
231 picks · 168 bans
Void Spirit
218 picks · 260 bans
Lina
217 picks · 467 bans
Lion
215 picks · 101 bans
Weaver
206 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength62% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:43
Entity 64%Hydra 36%
The model gave 64% on Entity — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:20.
Game 2prediction missed19:28
Entity 64%Hydra 36%
The model gave 64% on Entity — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 64%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2