Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 20 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
Bane
VANSKOR · 12 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 12 games
Enchantress
VANSKOR · 12 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
264 picks · 372 bans
Tidehunter
262 picks · 385 bans
Monkey King
256 picks · 608 bans
Bane
230 picks · 166 bans
Lina
217 picks · 466 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 260 bans
Lion
215 picks · 101 bans
Pangolier
207 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Team Empire
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total65% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
Team Empire 35%HellRaisers 65%
The model gave 65% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 44:58.
Game 2prediction correct13:34
Team Empire 35%HellRaisers 65%
The model gave 65% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 38:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 65%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2