Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
262 picks · 372 bans
Tidehunter
262 picks · 385 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 607 bans
Bane
229 picks · 166 bans
Lina
217 picks · 465 bans
Void Spirit
215 picks · 259 bans
Lion
214 picks · 101 bans
Pangolier
206 picks · 252 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total62% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:35
HellRaisers 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:45.
Game 2prediction missed10:42
HellRaisers 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 62%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2