Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Dark Willow
Hyde · 2 games
Elder Titan
kpii · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
kpii · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 2 games
Bane
Fly · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
Lion
Hyde · 1 game
InterActive Philippines
Rubick
Matt · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Luciano · 2 games
Enchantress
Kim0 · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
Marb · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Marb · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
260 picks · 370 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 386 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 604 bans
Bane
224 picks · 166 bans
Lina
216 picks · 466 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 259 bans
Lion
214 picks · 102 bans
Pangolier
209 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:18
Talon Esports 63%InterActive Philippines 37%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordGabbi
Phantom AssassinMarb
Tidehunterkpii
LinaNishababy
InvokerMikoto
Spirit BreakerLuciano
Dark WillowHyde
LionMatt
BaneFly
DisruptorKim0
Game 2prediction correct44:13
Talon Esports 65%InterActive Philippines 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinGabbi
Nature's ProphetMarb
KunkkaMikoto
LinaNishababy
Doomkpii
Spirit BreakerLuciano
Dark WillowHyde
RubickMatt
BaneFly
TidehunterKim0
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 72%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2