Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnuswin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HHellraisinsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
txhyoo1 · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Jack · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 2 games
Clockwerk
Chen · 2 games
Disruptor
Chen · 2 games
Venomanceroften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mark · 2 games
Hellraisins
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
260 picks · 385 bans
Mars
259 picks · 368 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 602 bans
Bane
224 picks · 160 bans
Lina
216 picks · 464 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 256 bans
Lion
214 picks · 102 bans
Pangolier
209 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Hellraisins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:41
Team Magnus 56%Hellraisins 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 49:10.
Game 2prediction correct40:30
Team Magnus 56%Hellraisins 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 51:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 56%
Series resultTeam Magnus 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2