Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportsloss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
Bane
Sonic · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Lich
Shoe · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Pugna
Fayde · 1 game
Silenceroften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
5RATFORCESTAFF
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
260 picks · 385 bans
Mars
259 picks · 368 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 602 bans
Bane
224 picks · 160 bans
Lina
216 picks · 464 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 256 bans
Lion
214 picks · 102 bans
Pangolier
209 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:39
Black Ice eSports 46%5RATFORCESTAFF 54%
The model gave 54% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 43:00.
Game 2prediction correct41:20
Black Ice eSports 46%5RATFORCESTAFF 54%
The model gave 54% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 40:16.
Game 3prediction correct36:52
Black Ice eSports 46%5RATFORCESTAFF 54%
The model gave 54% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 55:52.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 54%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3