European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
Faceless Void
xsvampire · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
egx · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 2 games
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 45 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 36 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 34 games
Tusk
slimeyao · 34 games
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 33 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
621 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 426 bans
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 623 bans
Shadow Demon
428 picks · 967 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 561 bans
Warlock
409 picks · 250 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 453 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 62%
Hero pool strength61% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total88% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:41
Ilbirs eSports 27%HULIGANI 73%
The model gave 73% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 47:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordNorma
PuckMirage
Shadow Fiendegx
Beastmasterv1olent-
Storm SpiritRain
ChenRESPECT
Shadow Demonxsvampire
MarsBb3px
46% · 158 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Game 2prediction correct29:29
Ilbirs eSports 25%HULIGANI 75%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 47:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightegx
Monkey Kingv1olent-
UnderlordNorma
TimbersawBb3px
SniperRain
Shadow FiendMirage
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
ChenRESPECT
42% · 103 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 88%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2