Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnusloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KBU.USwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 3 games
Disruptor
Chen · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
txhyoo1 · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 1 game
Chaos Knight
Sakata Gintoki · 1 game
Iooften banned
txhyoo1 · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
Jack · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Jack · 1 game
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
256 picks · 382 bans
Mars
255 picks · 352 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 582 bans
Bane
222 picks · 147 bans
Lion
215 picks · 100 bans
Void Spirit
215 picks · 250 bans
Lina
211 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
211 picks · 255 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Team Magnus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:42
Team Magnus 50%KBU.US 50%
The model gave 50% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 46:57.
Game 2prediction correct16:36
Team Magnus 50%KBU.US 50%
The model gave 50% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 27:36.
Game 3prediction correct49:19
Team Magnus 50%KBU.US 50%
The model gave 50% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 39:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 50%
Series resultKBU.US 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3