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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
NoMarciwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
SkyLark · 12 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
80%
Axe
Axe
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
50%

NoMarci

Mars
Marssignature
Noticed · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Dodren · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
forcemajor · 5 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
forcemajor · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Noticed · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
263 picks · 348 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 385 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
253 picks · 579 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
220 picks · 100 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
219 picks · 146 bans
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
217 picks · 248 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
212 picks · 455 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 263 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Brame 51%NoMarci 49%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by NoMarci in 28:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNefrit
46% · 165 games53% · 134 games
UrsaDaxak
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritW1sh-
47% · 243 games51% · 103 games
KunkkaDodren
Kunkka
Mars
MarsSkyLark
52% · 352 games51% · 301 game
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickCTOMAHEH1
43% · 166 games54% · 174 games
Weaverforcemajor
Weaver
Bane
BaneSsaSpartan
60% · 105 games46% · 319 games
LionSoNNeikO
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 51%
Series resultNoMarci 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1