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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
SkyLark · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axe
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
13%
Luna
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
38%

Hydra

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 7 games
71%
Bane
Bane
Zayac · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
25%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Muka · 4 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
267 picks · 348 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 387 bans
47%
Monkey King
Monkey King
252 picks · 589 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
227 picks · 104 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
224 picks · 251 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
217 picks · 145 bans
60%
Lina
Lina
217 picks · 461 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
217 picks · 271 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:21
Brame 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNefrit
45% · 146 games41% · 130 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
51% · 197 games56% · 123 games
Earth SpiritAskold
Earth Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
49% · 35 games46% · 252 games
MarsBlizzy
Mars
Io
IoSkyLark
51% · 132 games54% · 126 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Abaddon
AbaddonSsaSpartan
50% · 216 games56% · 95 games
BaneMuka
Bane
Game 2prediction missed8:27
Brame 54%Hydra 46%
The model gave 54% on Brame — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNefrit
47% · 100 games55% · 114 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
43% · 159 games47% · 134 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Razor
RazorW1sh-
58% · 56 games47% · 71 game
Legion CommanderBlizzy
Legion Commander
Weaver
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
46% · 80 games55% · 94 games
Dark WillowMuka
Dark Willow
Abaddon
AbaddonSsaSpartan
49% · 118 games54% · 100 games
BaneZayac
Bane
Game 3prediction missed23:36
Brame 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on Brame — the game was taken by Hydra in 55:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerNefrit
50% · 67 games46% · 125 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerW1sh-
45% · 57 games53% · 73 games
Dark SeerBlizzy
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsSkyLark
48% · 297 games49% · 150 games
InvokerAskold
Invoker
Weaver
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
54% · 119 games49% · 206 games
Monkey KingMuka
Monkey King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
52% · 120 games53% · 106 games
BaneZayac
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 56%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3