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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
37%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 15 games
40%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
266 picks · 348 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
263 picks · 388 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
250 picks · 592 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 104 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
226 picks · 251 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
218 picks · 463 bans
54%
Bane
Bane
217 picks · 144 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
217 picks · 269 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total63% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:32
Nemiga Gaming 37%HellRaisers 63%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 36:32.
Game 2prediction missed34:30
Nemiga Gaming 37%HellRaisers 63%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:51.
Game 3prediction correct3:26
Nemiga Gaming 37%HellRaisers 63%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 23:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 63%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3