Ragdoll vs Talon Esports — prediction DPC2—Ю · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3

result vs prediction

Ragdollwin 2:1

series probability

41%59%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Talon Esportsloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ragdoll

No games played over 6 months.

Talon Esports

Night Stalkeroften banned

kpii · 1 game

100%

Phantom Assassinoften banned

Gabbi · 1 game

100%

Snapfire

Hyde · 1 game

100%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Mikoto · 1 game

100%

Witch Doctor

Fly · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

265 picks · 344 bans

48%

Tidehunter

260 picks · 389 bans

48%

Monkey King

251 picks · 589 bans

61%

Lion

226 picks · 104 bans

52%

Void Spirit

224 picks · 251 bans

49%

Lina

220 picks · 462 bans

54%

Pangolier

218 picks · 270 bans

50%

Bane

216 picks · 144 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%

Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% Talon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed32:7

Ragdoll 45%Talon Esports 55%

The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 37:58.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo