?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
V-Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
37%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 15 games
40%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
65%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 31 game
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 20 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 18 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 344 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
260 picks · 389 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
249 picks · 589 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
226 picks · 104 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
224 picks · 251 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
219 picks · 461 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
218 picks · 270 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
215 picks · 142 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 65%
Hero pool strength59% V-Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total69% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:13
Nemiga Gaming 37%V-Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 22:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
60% · 149 games49% · 59 games
SpectreTA2000
Spectre
Lycan
LycanTheChosenOne
51% · 90 games47% · 305 games
Marslaise
Mars
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
51% · 162 games40% · 95 games
ViperhAze
Viper
Snapfire
SnapfireHeaven
44% · 174 games52% · 145 games
MiranaArrOw
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorVANSKOR
47% · 109 games57% · 80 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Game 2prediction correct16:37
Nemiga Gaming 37%V-Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerAinkrad
54% · 14 games55% · 87 games
Monkey KingTA2000
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaKiritych
46% · 65 games47% · 123 games
LinahAze
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTheChosenOne
51% · 84 games41% · 33 games
Outworld Destroyerlaise
Outworld Destroyer
Rubick
RubickVANSKOR
54% · 137 games53% · 84 games
Dark WillowArrOw
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressHeaven
51% · 139 games46% · 112 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed29:29
Nemiga Gaming 38%V-Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKiritych
47% · 73 games56% · 158 games
Monkey KingTA2000
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
46% · 123 games48% · 68 games
Queen of PainhAze
Queen of Pain
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTheChosenOne
45% · 29 games45% · 22 games
Outworld Destroyerlaise
Outworld Destroyer
Disruptor
DisruptorVANSKOR
51% · 65 games53% · 88 games
Dark WillowArrOw
Dark Willow
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHeaven
51% · 83 games49% · 37 games
Silencerantoha
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 69%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3