Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Winter Bear
Weaveroften banned
Ekki · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Exotic Deer · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Exotic Deer · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Exotic Deer · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ekki · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Exotic Deer · 1 game
Snapfire
Ekki · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
264 picks · 344 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 389 bans
Monkey King
249 picks · 589 bans
Lion
226 picks · 104 bans
Void Spirit
224 picks · 251 bans
Lina
219 picks · 461 bans
Pangolier
218 picks · 270 bans
Bane
215 picks · 142 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:45
Monaspa 57%Winter Bear 43%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 37:33.
Game 2prediction missed28:9
Monaspa 57%Winter Bear 43%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 23:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 57%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2