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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 25 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 25 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 23 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Limitless · 12 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 11 games
55%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 11 games
27%

Hydra

Bane
Bane
Zayac · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Askold · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Muka · 4 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 3 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Askold · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
263 picks · 342 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
260 picks · 388 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
249 picks · 586 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
224 picks · 104 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
224 picks · 251 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
219 picks · 461 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
218 picks · 270 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
214 picks · 141 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:26
B8 Esports 41%Hydra 59%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 48:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
55% · 40 games47% · 119 games
LunaKami
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDendi
46% · 115 games57% · 168 games
Earth SpiritAskold
Earth Spirit
Mars
MarsActor
48% · 232 games42% · 53 games
UnderlordBlizzy
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLagoona
59% · 106 games46% · 130 games
HoodwinkMuka
Hoodwink
55% · 23 games
PugnaZayac
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct11:28
B8 Esports 41%Hydra 59%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 22:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
43% · 114 games50% · 40 games
Drow RangerKami
Drow Ranger
Doom
DoomActor
60% · 78 games51% · 137 games
InvokerAskold
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDendi
51% · 115 games44% · 120 games
Dark SeerBlizzy
Dark Seer
Lion
LionLagoona
45% · 183 games52% · 124 games
Earth SpiritMuka
Earth Spirit
60% · 69 games
BaneZayac
Bane
Game 3prediction correct20:38
B8 Esports 37%Hydra 63%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkav1olent-
47% · 87 games49% · 146 games
Earth SpiritAskold
Earth Spirit
Magnus
MagnusDendi
47% · 75 games46% · 36 games
SlarkKami
Slark
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerActor
50% · 107 games55% · 59 games
Night StalkerBlizzy
Night Stalker
Phoenix
PhoenixLagoona
51% · 200 games45% · 21 game
ChenZayac
Chen
55% · 207 games
LionMuka
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 65%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3