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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Khanloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Khan

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 13 games
31%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 11 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 9 games
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
67%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 8 games
13%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Dodren · 8 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
layme · 8 games
75%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 335 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
260 picks · 384 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
247 picks · 583 bans
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
225 picks · 251 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
223 picks · 103 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
221 picks · 456 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
218 picks · 271 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
213 picks · 139 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:37
Khan 33%HellRaisers 67%
The model gave 67% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 41:16.
Game 2prediction missed33:21
Khan 33%HellRaisers 67%
The model gave 67% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Khan in 34:31.
Game 3prediction correct9:40
Khan 33%HellRaisers 67%
The model gave 67% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 32:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 67%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3